Add weekly attacker/campaign summary script
Parses fail2ban.log for the past 7 days into two append-only CSVs (per-IP and per-jail rollups) for longitudinal analysis, plus a human-readable summary emailed weekly. Two detection heuristics run on top of the raw data: distributed single-shot-per-IP scans across a /24 (shape of the apache-noscript campaign), and regular-timing evasion on repeat hits (shape of the sshd/dovecot low-and-slow campaigns) - both modeled on real campaigns found earlier this engagement. A live test run against real logs correctly re-identified the same dovecot campaign IPs found manually earlier, with matching interval timing. Runs weekly via cron, Sunday 06:00, clear of logrotate's daily timer. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -59,6 +59,38 @@ summary to `jens@jayfield.org` via the local mail stack (no external
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dependency). Exits non-zero if anything actually failed (warnings, like
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routine pending package upgrades, don't fail the run).
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## Weekly attacker summary
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`/usr/local/sbin/attacker-check.py` (added 2026-07-26) parses
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`fail2ban.log` (current + recent rotations, gzipped or not — reads enough
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history to cover a full week regardless of exactly when logrotate's daily
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midnight run lands relative to the cron job) for the past 7 days and
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turns it into two append-only CSVs for longitudinal analysis, plus a
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human-readable weekly summary emailed to `jens@jayfield.org`:
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- `/var/log/attacker-check/per_ip_weekly.csv` — one row per (jail, IP)
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per week: event count, first/last seen, `/24` subnet, and interval
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statistics (mean, stdev) between repeat hits.
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- `/var/log/attacker-check/per_jail_weekly.csv` — weekly rollup per jail:
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total events, distinct IPs, distinct `/24`s, new bans.
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Two detection heuristics run on top of the raw data, both modeled
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directly on real campaigns found earlier this engagement (see `TODO.md`):
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- **Distributed single-shot scans**: flags any `/24` subnet with ≥5
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distinct IPs averaging ≤3 events each against the same jail — the
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shape of the `apache-noscript` campaign found 2026-07-19.
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- **Regular-timing evasion**: flags any IP with ≥3 repeat hits on the
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same jail whose inter-hit timing has a coefficient of variation under
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15% — the shape of the `sshd`/`dovecot` low-and-slow campaigns found
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and fixed 2026-07-19/2026-07-25 (attackers spacing requests just past
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a jail's `findtime` window). A first live run against this week's real
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logs correctly re-identified the same dovecot campaign IPs from that
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earlier manual investigation, with matching ~22–28 minute intervals.
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Runs weekly via `/etc/cron.d/attacker-check`, Sunday 06:00 (clear of
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logrotate's daily midnight timer). Safe to also run manually at any
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time: `sudo /usr/local/sbin/attacker-check.py`.
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## System users
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| User | uid | Home | Purpose |
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