diff --git a/components/sud_forecast.py b/components/sud_forecast.py
index 3434f27..dc7846c 100644
--- a/components/sud_forecast.py
+++ b/components/sud_forecast.py
@@ -7,6 +7,27 @@ from components.sud import Sud, SudState
 # simulation forever - the estimate is simply cut off there.
 MAX_TICKS = 200000
 
+# Mirrors tasks/heater.py's own pulse_period_s - HeaterTask duty-cycles its
+# device's discrete power steps over a rolling window this many *real*
+# seconds wide, regardless of warp factor (see estimate()'s actuate()
+# closure below).
+PULSE_PERIOD_S = 10
+
+
+def _next_smaller_power(powers, power):
+	"""Mirrors HeaterTask.get_next_smaller_power() (tasks/heater.py) -
+	duplicated rather than imported (components/ has no business depending
+	on tasks/) - keep the two in sync if HeaterTask's PWM logic changes."""
+	p_list = [p for p in powers if p <= power]
+	return p_list[-1] if p_list else powers[0]
+
+
+def _next_greater_power(powers, power):
+	"""Mirrors HeaterTask.get_next_greater_power() (tasks/heater.py) - see
+	_next_smaller_power()."""
+	p_list = [p for p in powers if p > power]
+	return p_list[0] if p_list else powers[0]
+
 
 class SudForecastEstimator:
 	"""Predicts how long a Sud schedule will actually take by simulating it
@@ -20,14 +41,26 @@ class SudForecastEstimator:
 	whenever a client needs an estimate - the naive "abs(delta)/rate" model
 	the GUI used to compute itself has no way to see the real PID cascade's
 	spin-up/settling lag, which is exactly why its estimate drifted so far
-	from reality (see README.md's "Forecast vs. actual duration")."""
+	from reality (see README.md's "Forecast vs. actual duration").
 
-	def __init__(self, dt, theta_amb, pid_type, tempctrl_params, heater_max_power):
+	estimate() also duty-cycles the PID's continuous output across the
+	heater's own discrete power steps (see its actuate() closure), exactly
+	like the real run's HeaterTask/device chain does - feeding tc.get_power()
+	straight to the plant instead lets pid_heat's own oscillatory tendency
+	reach the plant undamped, producing a forecast far more jagged than any
+	real run actually is (the discrete steps end up duty-cycling it back
+	down to something close to the commanded average)."""
+
+	def __init__(self, dt, theta_amb, pid_type, tempctrl_params, heater_powers, sim_warp_factor):
 		self.dt = dt
 		self.theta_amb = theta_amb
 		self.pid_type = pid_type
 		self.tempctrl_params = tempctrl_params
-		self.heater_max_power = heater_max_power
+		# The heater's own discrete output levels (AHeater.get_powers()),
+		# not just its max - duty-cycling needs the actual steps to pick the
+		# pair straddling the commanded power.
+		self.heater_powers = heater_powers
+		self.sim_warp_factor = sim_warp_factor
 
 	def set_ambient_temperature(self, theta_amb):
 		self.theta_amb = theta_amb
@@ -87,6 +120,29 @@ class SudForecastEstimator:
 		# hitting MAX_TICKS and producing a needlessly huge result.
 		tc.set_theta_soll(start_theta)
 
+		# Ticks here are dt simulated seconds each, same as HeaterTask's own
+		# loop (one DT_TASK real seconds == dt simulated seconds, by warp
+		# factor's definition) - so the PWM period, in ticks, is the same
+		# pulse_period_s * sim_warp_factor regardless of dt.
+		pulse_period_count = PULSE_PERIOD_S * self.sim_warp_factor
+		pulse_counter = 0
+
+		def actuate(y):
+			"""Duty-cycles y (tc.get_power(), in -1..1) across self.
+			heater_powers exactly like HeaterTask.on_process()'s loop does
+			with power_actor - see SudForecastEstimator's own docstring."""
+			nonlocal pulse_counter
+			power = max(0, self.heater_powers[-1] * y)
+			power_low = _next_smaller_power(self.heater_powers, power)
+			power_high = _next_greater_power(self.heater_powers, power)
+			power_step = power_high - power_low
+			duty = (power - power_low) / power_step if power_step else 0.0
+			on_count = pulse_period_count * duty
+			pulse_counter += 1
+			if pulse_counter >= pulse_period_count:
+				pulse_counter = 0
+			return power_low if (power == 0 or pulse_counter >= on_count) else power_high
+
 		def on_step_changed(step):
 			if step is None:
 				return
@@ -114,7 +170,10 @@ class SudForecastEstimator:
 			pot.process()
 			tc.set_theta_ist(pot.get_temperature())
 			tc.process()
-			pot.set_power(max(0, self.heater_max_power * tc.get_power()))
+			power = actuate(tc.get_power())
+			pot.set_power(power)
+			if hasattr(tc, 'set_model_power'):
+				tc.set_model_power(power)
 
 			if sud.state == SudState.RAMPING:
 				if tc.is_holding():
diff --git a/server/brewpi.py b/server/brewpi.py
index 49da7f3..8d93b5e 100755
--- a/server/brewpi.py
+++ b/server/brewpi.py
@@ -109,7 +109,8 @@ if __name__ == '__main__':
 	# it with the same kind of plant/controller (and params) as above -
 	# see components/sud_forecast.py.
 	forecast_estimator = SudForecastEstimator(
-		DT, theta_amb, config['Controller']['pid_type'], config['TempCtrl'], heater.get_power_max())
+		DT, theta_amb, config['Controller']['pid_type'], config['TempCtrl'],
+		heater.get_powers(), config['Controller']['sim_warp_factor'])
 	sud_task = SudTask(sud, tc, stirrer, pot, DT, DT_TASK, dispatcher.msgio_get("Sud"), forecast_estimator)
 	taskmgr.add(sud_task)
 	# Records every Sud run's measured data and forecast to their own